← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Aug 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianluca Manganiello, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 49% | 57% | 2.01 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 28% | 20% | 3.56 | fair |
| Chievo win | 24% | 22% | 4.15 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 34' | ⚽ | Manuel Pucciarelli · Chievo |
| 66' | 🟨 | Wallace · SS Lazio |
| 67' | 🟨 | Valter Birsa · Chievo |
| 89' | ⚽ | Sergej Milinković-Savić · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chievo | SS Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| coach days | 1061.00 | 513.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1485.96 | 1639.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.75 | -45.88 |
| eye test v1 | -0.82 | 0.80 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | -0.59 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.70 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 2.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.63 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.26 | 0.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.00 |
| state index | -0.33 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |