← Serie A 2017-18 · Sat, Aug 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Luca Banti, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 66% | 73% | 1.48 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 22% | 18% | 4.39 | fair |
| Genoa CFC win | 12% | 9% | 8.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ (og) | Miralem Pjanić · Genoa CFC |
| 7' | 🟨 | Stephan Lichtsteiner · Juventus FC |
| 7' | ⚽ (pen) | Andrej Gălăbinov · Genoa CFC |
| 13' | 🟨 | Santiago Gentiletti · Genoa CFC |
| 14' | ⚽ | Paulo Dybala · Juventus FC |
| 17' | 🟨 | Davide Biraschi · Genoa CFC |
| 18' | 🟨 | Miralem Pjanić · Juventus FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Darko Lazović · Genoa CFC |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Paulo Dybala · Juventus FC |
| 62' | ⚽ | Juan Cuadrado · Juventus FC |
| 64' | 🟨 | Juan Cuadrado · Juventus FC |
| 78' | 🟨 | Diego Laxalt · Genoa CFC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Paulo Dybala · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genoa CFC | Juventus FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days | 147.00 | 1152.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 8.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 3.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1461.43 | 1871.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.54 | -16.43 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | 1.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.70 | 62.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.78 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 86.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 62.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 9.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 18.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.03 | 1.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| state index | -0.01 | 1.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | 0.74 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |