← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Aug 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Damato, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 52% | 43% | 1.90 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 34% | 3.66 | value: +24% |
| Genoa CFC win | 22% | 24% | 4.53 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Miguel Veloso · Genoa CFC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Luca Rossettini · Genoa CFC |
| 55' | 🟨 | Francesco Magnanelli · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 61' | 🟨 | Matteo Politano · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 63' | 🟨 | Santiago Gentiletti · Genoa CFC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 28 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Sassuolo Calcio | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 1268.00 | 141.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.75 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1547.78 | 1457.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.64 | 2.26 |
| eye test v1 | 1.03 | -0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 49.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.42 | 0.62 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.11 | -0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.43 | -0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.49 | -0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |