← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, May 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Rapuano, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino FC win | 53% | 57% | 1.85 | value: +6% |
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 24% | 15% | 4.13 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 28% | 4.19 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Lucas Boyé · Torino FC |
| 14' | ⚽ | Grégoire Defrel · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 18' | 🟨 | Lucas Boyé · Torino FC |
| 22' | ⚽ | Daniele Baselli · Torino FC |
| 40' | ⚽ | Grégoire Defrel · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 45' | ⚽ | Lorenzo De Silvestri · Torino FC |
| 57' | ⚽ | Iago Falque · Torino FC |
| 79' | ⚽ | Andrea Belotti · Torino FC |
| 81' | ⚽ (pen) | Grégoire Defrel · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luca Rossettini · Torino FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 21 |
| 9 | On target | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 10 |
| 16 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Torino FC | US Sassuolo Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.54 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.53 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 331.00 | 1184.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.26 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -6.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 10.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1687.73 | 1678.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.49 | 48.83 |
| eye test v1 | -0.42 | 0.70 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.67 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 42.30 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.46 | 0.71 |
| league points | 50.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 18.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.55 | -0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 27.24 | 27.20 |
| state index | 0.01 | 0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.09 | -0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |