← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, May 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Luca Banti, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 77% | 74% | 1.28 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 14% | 7.10 | fair |
| Sampdoria win | 10% | 12% | 10.15 | value: +22% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | ⚽ | Dries Mertens · SSC Napoli |
| 42' | ⚽ | Lorenzo Insigne · SSC Napoli |
| 49' | ⚽ | Marek Hamšík · SSC Napoli |
| 50' | ⚽ | Fabio Quagliarella · Sampdoria |
| 53' | 🟨 | Milan Škriniar · Sampdoria |
| 65' | ⚽ | José Callejón · SSC Napoli |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ricardo Álvarez · Sampdoria |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 22 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 10 |
| 9 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sampdoria | SSC Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.54 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days | 331.00 | 727.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 3.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1531.54 | 1819.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.03 | 23.63 |
| eye test v1 | 0.37 | 1.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.50 | 66.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.79 |
| league points | 48.00 | 83.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 86.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 60.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 2.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | 8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 19.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.29 | 1.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.80 |
| squad age | 22.98 | 26.16 |
| state index | -0.73 | 1.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.36 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |