← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, May 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Tagliavento, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 92% | 86% | 1.06 | fair |
| Draw | 6% | 10% | 16.40 | value: +59% |
| Genoa CFC win | 2% | 5% | 42.00 | value: +97% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Pietro Pellegri · Genoa CFC |
| 10' | ⚽ | Edin Dzeko · AS Roma |
| 74' | ⚽ | Daniele De Rossi · AS Roma |
| 79' | ⚽ | Darko Lazović · Genoa CFC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Edin Dzeko · AS Roma |
| 90' | 🟨 | Diego Perotti · AS Roma |
| 90' | ⚽ | Diego Perotti · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 24 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 513.00 | 57.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.23 | 2.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1814.98 | 1459.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.49 | 1.86 |
| eye test v1 | 1.89 | -0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 52.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.64 |
| league points | 84.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.20 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.80 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 2.27 | 0.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.40 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.45 | 0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.20 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 9.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 25.21 | — |
| state index | 1.23 | -0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |