← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, May 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Nicola Rizzoli, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli win | 62% | 49% | 1.58 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 27% | 4.50 | value: +21% |
| Palermo win | 16% | 24% | 6.00 | value: +44% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Haitam Aleesami · Palermo |
| 38' | 🟨 | Giuseppe Bellusci · Empoli |
| 49' | 🟨 | Assane Dioussé · Empoli |
| 66' | 🟨 | Vincent Laurini · Empoli |
| 67' | 🟨 | Andrea Costa · Empoli |
| 69' | 🟨 | Alessandro Diamanti · Palermo |
| 76' | ⚽ | Ilija Nestorovski · Palermo |
| 84' | ⚽ | Bruno Henrique · Palermo |
| 87' | ⚽ | Rade Krunić · Empoli |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ivaylo Chochev · Palermo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 0 | Corners | 7 |
| 18 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Palermo | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Renzo Barbera |
| coach days | 57.00 | 331.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.47 | 2.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1380.85 | 1436.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.86 | 3.77 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | 0.80 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.68 |
| league points | 23.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.60 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.62 | 0.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.95 | 0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| state index | -0.42 | -0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.05 | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |