← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, May 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Martinelli, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 77% | 87% | 1.28 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 14% | 9% | 7.05 | fair |
| Pescara win | 9% | 4% | 10.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Gianluca Caprari · Pescara |
| 36' | 🟨 | Federico Chiesa · ACF Fiorentina |
| 38' | 🟨 | Federico Chiesa · ACF Fiorentina |
| 38' | 🟥 | Federico Chiesa · ACF Fiorentina |
| 42' | 🟨 | Hugo Campagnaro · Pescara |
| 65' | 🟨 | Davide Astori · ACF Fiorentina |
| 65' | ⚽ | Jean-Christophe Bahebeck · Pescara |
| 66' | ⚽ | Riccardo Saponara · ACF Fiorentina |
| 77' | 🟨 | Ianis Hagi · ACF Fiorentina |
| 85' | ⚽ | Matías Vecino · ACF Fiorentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 24 | Shots | 15 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 10 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ACF Fiorentina | Pescara |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
| coach days | 1822.00 | 116.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.94 | 1.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1628.01 | 1305.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.06 | -3.00 |
| eye test v1 | 1.12 | 0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.20 | 52.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.67 |
| league points | 59.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.59 | 0.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.32 | 0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.80 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.16 | -0.92 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.51 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |