← Serie A 2016-17 · Sat, May 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Maurizio Mariani, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 60% | 64% | 1.64 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 23% | 20% | 4.27 | fair |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 17% | 15% | 5.63 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 52' | ⚽ | Saphir Taïder · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 65' | 🟨 | Federico Viviani · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 70' | ⚽ | Paulo Dybala · Juventus FC |
| 79' | 🟨 | Juan Cuadrado · Juventus FC |
| 82' | 🟨 | Orji Okwonkwo · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Daniele Gastaldello · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Moise Kean · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 17 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 10 |
| 17 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bologna FC 1909 | Juventus FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Renato Dall'Ara |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 604.00 | 1061.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 8.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.78 | 3.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1480.30 | 1866.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.21 | -24.40 |
| eye test v1 | 0.03 | 1.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.20 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.78 |
| league points | 41.00 | 88.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 86.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 61.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 2.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 18.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.50 | 1.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| state index | -0.22 | 1.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.53 | 0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |