← Serie A 2016-17 · Sat, May 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Celi Domenico, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 74% | 82% | 1.33 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 17% | 13% | 5.91 | fair |
| Chievo win | 10% | 5% | 9.85 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 52' | ⚽ | Papu Gómez · Atalanta BC |
| 77' | 🟨 | Mattia Caldara · Atalanta BC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atalanta BC | Chievo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| coach days | 360.00 | 969.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| venue | Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| 0.60 |
| -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 1.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1779.63 | 1602.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.38 | -9.62 |
| eye test v1 | 0.45 | -0.88 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.90 | 50.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.56 |
| league points | 69.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.86 | 1.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.37 | -0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 25.14 | 30.32 |
| state index | 0.83 | -0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.09 | -0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |