← Serie A 2016-17 · Mon, May 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Luca J. Pairetto, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pescara win | 51% | 46% | 1.91 | fair |
| Palermo win | 24% | 31% | 4.01 | value: +22% |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.06 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Robert Murić · Pescara |
| 43' | 🟨 | Cristiano Biraghi · Pescara |
| 60' | 🟨 | Gastón Brugman · Pescara |
| 87' | ⚽ | Alexandru Mitriță · Pescara |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 18 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pescara | Palermo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia |
| coach days | 110.00 | 51.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.95 | 3.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1288.85 | 1397.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.54 | 35.80 |
| eye test v1 | -0.07 | -0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.00 | 53.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.69 |
| league points | 14.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 41.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.39 | 0.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.18 | -0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| state index | -1.64 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.49 | -0.97 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |