← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, May 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Riccardo Pinzani, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio win | 47% | 49% | 2.09 | fair |
| Sampdoria win | 28% | 26% | 3.56 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.85 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Cyril Théréau · Udinese Calcio |
| 30' | 🟨 | Lucas Torreira · Sampdoria |
| 47' | 🟥 | Rodrigo De Paul · Udinese Calcio |
| 56' | 🟨 | Jacopo Sala · Sampdoria |
| 64' | ⚽ (pen) | Luis Muriel · Sampdoria |
| 65' | 🟥 | Danilo · Udinese Calcio |
| 65' | 🟥 | Luis Muriel · Sampdoria |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jakub Jankto · Udinese Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 2 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Udinese Calcio | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.57 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Dacia Arena |
| coach days |
| 232.00 |
| 324.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.83 | 1.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1504.71 | 1530.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.20 | -34.07 |
| eye test v1 | -0.28 | 0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.52 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 47.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| league points | 44.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 55.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.11 | 0.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.28 | 22.98 |
| state index | -0.46 | -0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.25 | 0.99 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |