← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, May 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Piero Giacomelli, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 75% | 70% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 17% | 6.24 | value: +3% |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 9% | 14% | 10.62 | value: +44% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Filip Helander · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 69' | ⚽ | Gerard Deulofeu · AC Milan |
| 70' | 🟨 | Gerard Deulofeu · AC Milan |
| 72' | 🟨 | Daniele Gastaldello · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 73' | ⚽ | Keisuke Honda · AC Milan |
| 90' | 🟨 | Patrick Cutrone · AC Milan |
| 90' | ⚽ | Gianluca Lapadula · AC Milan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 0 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Milan | Bologna FC 1909 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza |
| coach days | 354.00 | 598.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 2.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1621.68 | 1488.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.08 | 2.64 |
| eye test v1 | 0.96 | 0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.52 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.10 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.64 |
| league points | 60.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.80 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.27 | 0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 23.03 | — |
| state index | -0.14 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.49 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |