← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, May 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Di Bello, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 58% | 50% | 1.69 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 13% | 4.66 | fair |
| FC Internazionale Milano win | 21% | 37% | 4.69 | value: +75% ⚠ |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Jeison Murillo · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 18' | ⚽ (pen) | Keita Baldé · SS Lazio |
| 31' | ⚽ | Marco Andreolli · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 37' | ⚽ (og) | Wesley Hoedt · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 46' | 🟨 | Wesley Hoedt · SS Lazio |
| 47' | 🟨 | Éder · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 61' | 🟨 | Keita Baldé · SS Lazio |
| 66' | 🟨 | Keita Baldé · SS Lazio |
| 66' | 🟥 | Keita Baldé · SS Lazio |
| 71' | 🟨 | Senad Lulić · SS Lazio |
| 74' | ⚽ | Éder · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 78' | 🟨 | Senad Lulić · SS Lazio |
| 78' | 🟥 | Senad Lulić · SS Lazio |
| 80' | 🟨 | Cristiano Lombardi · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 7 | Shots | 9 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 18 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | FC Internazionale Milano |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 415.00 | 20.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.47 | 4.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1808.69 | 1722.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.03 | -44.59 |
| eye test v1 | 1.45 | 0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | -0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.60 | 61.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 2.31 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.61 |
| league points | 70.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 1.94 | 1.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.00 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.61 | 0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.25 | 27.67 |
| state index | 1.30 | -0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.50 | 0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |