← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, May 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Silvio Mazzoleni, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 88% | 88% | 1.12 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 8% | 10.29 | fair |
| Crotone win | 3% | 4% | 36.07 | value: +62% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Mario Mandžukić · Juventus FC |
| 39' | ⚽ | Paulo Dybala · Juventus FC |
| 76' | 🟨 | Bruno Martella · Crotone |
| 83' | ⚽ | Alex Sandro · Juventus FC |
| 89' | 🟨 | Dani Alves · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | Crotone |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| coach days | 1055.00 | 324.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.74 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1864.02 | 1469.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.34 | 40.86 |
| eye test v1 | 1.01 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.82 |
| league points | 85.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.80 | 64.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.20 | 36.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 2.36 | 0.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.60 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.20 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.81 | -2.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| state index | 1.11 | 0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.67 | -1.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |