← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, May 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Guida, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC win | 43% | 50% | 2.27 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 29% | 24% | 3.43 | fair |
| Torino FC win | 28% | 26% | 3.46 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Luca Rigoni · Genoa CFC |
| 10' | 🟨 | Luca Rossettini · Torino FC |
| 32' | ⚽ | Luca Rigoni · Genoa CFC |
| 36' | 🟨 | Afriyie Acquah · Torino FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Saša Lukić · Torino FC |
| 49' | 🟨 | Miguel Veloso · Genoa CFC |
| 49' | 🟨 | Adem Ljajić · Torino FC |
| 54' | ⚽ | Giovanni Simeone · Genoa CFC |
| 80' | 🟨 | Lucas Boyé · Torino FC |
| 89' | ⚽ | Adem Ljajić · Torino FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 4 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genoa CFC | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days | 50.00 | 324.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 4.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1447.10 | 1574.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.02 | 2.20 |
| eye test v1 | -0.28 | 0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.60 | 45.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.47 |
| league points | 33.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 1.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 18.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.09 | 0.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.52 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.18 | -0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |