← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, May 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Valeri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 39% | 30% | 2.54 | fair |
| Empoli win | 32% | 41% | 3.07 | value: +25% |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.34 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Papu Gómez · Atalanta BC |
| 24' | 🟨 | Manuel Pasqual · Empoli |
| 24' | 🟨 | Andrea Conti · Atalanta BC |
| 28' | 🟨 | Marcel Büchel · Empoli |
| 39' | 🟨 | Andrea Masiello · Atalanta BC |
| 70' | 🟨 | Omar El Kaddouri · Empoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Empoli | Atalanta BC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Carlo Castellani |
| coach days | 324.00 | 354.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 2.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1442.15 | 1649.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.79 | 10.00 |
| eye test v1 | 0.99 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.60 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.71 |
| league points | 32.00 | 66.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 1.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.13 | -0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.15 | 0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.74 | -0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |