← Serie A 2016-17 · Sat, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Damato, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 81% | 70% | 1.21 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 18% | 7.98 | value: +43% |
| Chievo win | 7% | 12% | 14.15 | value: +70% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Lucas Castro · Chievo |
| 15' | ⚽ | Lucas Castro · Chievo |
| 28' | ⚽ | Stephan El Shaarawy · AS Roma |
| 37' | ⚽ | Roberto Inglese · Chievo |
| 42' | ⚽ | Mohamed Salah · AS Roma |
| 47' | 🟨 | Ivan Radovanović · Chievo |
| 58' | ⚽ | Stephan El Shaarawy · AS Roma |
| 76' | ⚽ | Mohamed Salah · AS Roma |
| 83' | ⚽ | Edin Dzeko · AS Roma |
| 86' | ⚽ | Roberto Inglese · Chievo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 19 |
| 4 | On target | 11 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chievo | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| coach days |
| 962.00 |
| 505.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 3.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1483.05 | 1809.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.56 | 3.44 |
| eye test v1 | -1.03 | 1.49 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.60 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.73 |
| league points | 43.00 | 81.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 86.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 57.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 2.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | 5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 18.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.30 | 1.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.80 |
| squad age | — | 25.21 |
| state index | -0.61 | 1.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.15 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |