← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Massimiliano Irrati, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 65% | 52% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 25% | 5.25 | value: +32% |
| Torino FC win | 16% | 23% | 6.09 | value: +39% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | José Callejón · SSC Napoli |
| 8' | 🟨 | Daniele Baselli · Torino FC |
| 53' | 🟨 | Samuel Gustafson · Torino FC |
| 56' | 🟨 | Raúl Albiol · SSC Napoli |
| 60' | ⚽ | Lorenzo Insigne · SSC Napoli |
| 72' | ⚽ | Dries Mertens · SSC Napoli |
| 76' | ⚽ | José Callejón · SSC Napoli |
| 78' | ⚽ | Piotr Zieliński · SSC Napoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 15 |
| 1 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Torino FC | SSC Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino |
| coach days | 317.00 | 713.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.22 | 3.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1711.34 | 1924.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.74 | 25.12 |
| eye test v1 | 0.67 | 1.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 44.50 | 65.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.74 |
| league points | 50.00 | 77.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 16.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 87.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.00 | 65.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 2.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.60 | 19.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.19 | 2.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 27.80 | 27.77 |
| state index | 0.78 | 1.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.04 | 0.98 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |