← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabio Maresca, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria win | 54% | 55% | 1.81 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.86 | fair |
| Chievo win | 20% | 19% | 4.80 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Fabio Quagliarella · Sampdoria |
| 23' | 🟨 | Vasco Regini · Sampdoria |
| 25' | 🟨 | Sergio Pellissier · Chievo |
| 46' | ⚽ | Roberto Inglese · Chievo |
| 79' | 🟨 | Ivan Radovanović · Chievo |
| 85' | 🟨 | Filip Đuričić · Sampdoria |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lucas Castro · Chievo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fabio Depaoli · Chievo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 17 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sampdoria | Chievo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.65 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days | 317.00 | 956.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 1.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1533.73 | 1479.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.89 | -26.92 |
| eye test v1 | 0.27 | -0.74 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.70 | 49.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.60 |
| league points | 46.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | -8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.66 | 0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 22.98 | — |
| state index | -0.76 | -0.79 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.76 | -0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |