← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Doveri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC win | 46% | 50% | 2.14 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 31% | 23% | 3.16 | fair |
| Palermo win | 24% | 27% | 4.15 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Luca Rigoni · Genoa CFC |
| 13' | ⚽ | Andrea Rispoli · Palermo |
| 25' | 🟨 | Bruno Henrique · Palermo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 9 |
| 18 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Palermo | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Renzo Barbera |
| coach days | 43.00 | 43.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.60 | 1.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1387.68 | 1457.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.86 | -7.86 |
| eye test v1 | -0.70 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.10 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.62 |
| league points | 20.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.57 | 0.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.33 | 0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.51 | -0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.62 | -0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |