← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Fabbri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crotone win | 53% | 52% | 1.86 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.54 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 20% | 20% | 4.99 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Marcus Rohdén · Crotone |
| 37' | 🟨 | Diego Falcinelli · Crotone |
| 37' | 🟨 | Sven Kums · Udinese Calcio |
| 76' | 🟨 | Ali Adnan · Udinese Calcio |
| 88' | 🟨 | Mario Sampirisi · Crotone |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crotone | Udinese Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Ezio Scida |
| coach days | 317.00 | 225.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.51 | 2.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1459.79 | 1514.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 45.97 | -1.24 |
| eye test v1 | -0.28 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.59 |
| league points | 28.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.00 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 1.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -2.27 | -0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | — | 25.28 |
| state index | 0.17 | -0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.11 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |