← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Maurizio Mariani, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari Calcio win | 39% | 39% | 2.52 | fair |
| Empoli win | 34% | 36% | 2.87 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.63 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Marco Sau · Cagliari Calcio |
| 17' | ⚽ | Diego Farias · Cagliari Calcio |
| 40' | 🟨 | Fabio Pisacane · Cagliari Calcio |
| 45' | 🟨 | Giuseppe Bellusci · Empoli |
| 45' | ⚽ | Diego Farias · Cagliari Calcio |
| 49' | 🟨 | Omar El Kaddouri · Empoli |
| 67' | 🟨 | Bruno Alves · Cagliari Calcio |
| 79' | ⚽ | Miha Zajc · Empoli |
| 84' | ⚽ | Massimo Maccarone · Empoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | Sant'Elia |
| coach days |
| 713.00 |
| 317.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.63 | 3.14 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1479.55 | 1449.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.00 | 29.62 |
| eye test v1 | 0.27 | 1.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | 0.80 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 62.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.68 |
| league points | 41.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 0.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.14 | -0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.60 |
| state index | -0.16 | 0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.64 | -0.74 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |