← Serie A 2016-17 · Sat, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Celi Domenico, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 54% | 54% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 26% | 4.23 | value: +10% |
| SS Lazio win | 23% | 21% | 4.24 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Davide Astori · ACF Fiorentina |
| 26' | 🟨 | Marco Parolo · SS Lazio |
| 55' | ⚽ | Keita Baldé · SS Lazio |
| 64' | 🟨 | Ştefan Radu · SS Lazio |
| 67' | ⚽ | Khouma Babacar · ACF Fiorentina |
| 73' | ⚽ | Nikola Kalinić · ACF Fiorentina |
| 76' | ⚽ (og) | Cristiano Lombardi · ACF Fiorentina |
| 81' | ⚽ | Alessandro Murgia · SS Lazio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Borja Valero · ACF Fiorentina |
| 90' | 🟨 | Wesley Hoedt · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 14 |
| 9 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ACF Fiorentina | SS Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
| coach days | 1807.00 | 407.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1624.86 | 1693.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.24 | 16.44 |
| eye test v1 | 0.89 | 1.54 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | 0.49 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.10 | 53.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 2.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.68 |
| league points | 56.00 | 70.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.20 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 17.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.30 | 0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.30 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 8.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.20 |
| state index | 0.01 | 0.92 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.57 | -0.99 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |