← Serie A 2016-17 · Sat, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianluca Rocchi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 48% | 46% | 2.04 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.60 | fair |
| AC Milan win | 25% | 28% | 3.89 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | 🟨 | Rafael Tolói · Atalanta BC |
| 44' | ⚽ | Andrea Conti · Atalanta BC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Andrea Conti · Atalanta BC |
| 51' | 🟨 | Suso · AC Milan |
| 87' | ⚽ | Gerard Deulofeu · AC Milan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atalanta BC | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia |
| coach days | 346.00 | 346.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 9.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.69 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1776.22 | 1742.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.94 | -28.31 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | 1.45 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 51.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.75 |
| league points | 65.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 59.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.86 | 1.69 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.01 | 1.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.40 |
| squad age | 25.84 | 25.60 |
| state index | 0.63 | 0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.05 | 0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |