← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, May 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Di Bello, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 42% | 51% | 2.34 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.37 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 29% | 22% | 3.37 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Cristian Raimondi · Atalanta BC |
| 34' | 🟨 | Andrija Balić · Udinese Calcio |
| 41' | ⚽ | Bryan Cristante · Atalanta BC |
| 43' | 🟨 | Felipe · Udinese Calcio |
| 53' | ⚽ | Stipe Perica · Udinese Calcio |
| 55' | 🟨 | Jasmin Kurtić · Atalanta BC |
| 61' | 🟨 | Andrea Masiello · Atalanta BC |
| 81' | 🟨 | Emil Hallfreðsson · Udinese Calcio |
| 88' | 🟨 | Rodrigo De Paul · Udinese Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 19 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Udinese Calcio | Atalanta BC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Dacia Arena |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 218.00 | 340.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.24 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.66 | 2.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1512.23 | 1654.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.39 | 24.53 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | 0.82 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.43 | -0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 61.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.72 |
| league points | 43.00 | 64.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.57 | 0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 25.28 | — |
| state index | -0.18 | 0.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.64 | -0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |