← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, May 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Carmine Russo, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crotone win | 52% | 61% | 1.89 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 25% | 22% | 4.00 | fair |
| Pescara win | 24% | 17% | 4.15 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | 🟨 | Gianluca Caprari · Pescara |
| 54' | 🟨 | Leonardo Capezzi · Crotone |
| 62' | 🟨 | Gastón Brugman · Pescara |
| 71' | ⚽ | Aleksandăr Tonev · Crotone |
| 72' | 🟨 | Aleksandăr Tonev · Crotone |
| 76' | 🟨 | Ahmad Benali · Pescara |
| 76' | 🟨 | Ahmad Benali · Pescara |
| 76' | 🟥 | Ahmad Benali · Pescara |
| 83' | 🟨 | Mamadou Coulibaly · Pescara |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 21 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pescara | Crotone |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| venue | Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia |
| coach days | 95.00 | 310.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.99 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1462.48 | 1551.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.03 | 56.19 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | 0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.76 |
| league points | 14.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 64.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 35.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.41 | 0.74 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.72 | -2.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.84 | 26.29 |
| state index | -0.83 | 0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.97 | -2.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |