← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, May 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Nicola Rizzoli, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 44% | 33% | 2.23 | fair |
| AC Milan win | 30% | 43% | 3.24 | value: +39% |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.81 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Edin Dzeko · AS Roma |
| 28' | ⚽ | Edin Dzeko · AS Roma |
| 48' | 🟨 | Leonel Vangioni · AC Milan |
| 59' | 🟨 | Gianluca Lapadula · AC Milan |
| 63' | 🟨 | Andrea Bertolacci · AC Milan |
| 63' | 🟨 | Konstantinos Manolas · AS Roma |
| 76' | ⚽ | Mario Pašalić · AC Milan |
| 77' | 🟨 | Lucas Ocampos · AC Milan |
| 78' | ⚽ | Stephan El Shaarawy · AS Roma |
| 86' | 🟥 | Gabriel Paletta · AC Milan |
| 87' | ⚽ (pen) | Daniele De Rossi · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 24 |
| 2 | On target | 10 |
| 9 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Milan | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza |
| coach days | 340.00 | 492.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 8.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 3.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1632.21 | 1780.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.78 | -16.77 |
| eye test v1 | 1.81 | 0.92 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.50 | 60.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.74 |
| league points | 59.00 | 75.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 87.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.60 | 61.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.74 | 2.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.00 | 17.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.46 | 1.93 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.30 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 23.03 | 25.21 |
| state index | 0.48 | 1.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.39 | 0.74 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |