← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, May 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Silvio Mazzoleni, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 75% | 82% | 1.31 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 16% | 11% | 6.25 | fair |
| Sampdoria win | 9% | 8% | 10.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Keita Baldé · SS Lazio |
| 18' | 🟥 | Milan Škriniar · Sampdoria |
| 19' | ⚽ (pen) | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 32' | ⚽ | Karol Linetty · Sampdoria |
| 36' | ⚽ | Wesley Hoedt · SS Lazio |
| 38' | ⚽ (pen) | Felipe Anderson · SS Lazio |
| 45' | ⚽ | Stefan de Vrij · SS Lazio |
| 65' | ⚽ | Senad Lulić · SS Lazio |
| 70' | ⚽ | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 72' | ⚽ | Fabio Quagliarella · Sampdoria |
| 78' | 🟨 | Fabio Quagliarella · Sampdoria |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Fabio Quagliarella · Sampdoria |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 5 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 8 |
| 11 | On target | 7 |
| 11 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 6 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 401.00 | 310.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -6.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 10.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.10 | 1.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1685.01 | 1542.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.55 | -6.01 |
| eye test v1 | 0.92 | -0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.10 | 52.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.73 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.78 |
| league points | 67.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.97 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | -6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.17 | 0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | — | 22.98 |
| state index | 0.83 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.86 | 0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |