← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, May 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Serra Marco, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chievo win | 55% | 54% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.98 | fair |
| Palermo win | 20% | 22% | 4.85 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Mato Jajalo · Palermo |
| 41' | 🟨 | Giancarlo González · Palermo |
| 46' | 🟨 | Boštjan Cesar · Chievo |
| 67' | ⚽ (pen) | Sergio Pellissier · Chievo |
| 77' | 🟨 | Roland Sallai · Palermo |
| 82' | 🟨 | Alessandro Gamberini · Chievo |
| 87' | 🟨 | Valter Birsa · Chievo |
| 88' | ⚽ | Edoardo Goldaniga · Palermo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 15 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 20 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chievo | Palermo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.43 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| coach days | 949.00 | 36.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.85 | 3.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1484.21 | 1383.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.42 | 2.51 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | -0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.10 | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.68 |
| league points | 41.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 0.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.05 | -0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| state index | -0.67 | -0.83 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.29 | -0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |