← Serie A 2016-17 · Sat, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Piero Giacomelli, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 88% | 86% | 1.11 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 9% | 11.29 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 3% | 5% | 31.00 | value: +60% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Dries Mertens · SSC Napoli |
| 49' | ⚽ | Dries Mertens · SSC Napoli |
| 55' | 🟨 | Piotr Zieliński · SSC Napoli |
| 67' | ⚽ | Lorenzo Insigne · SSC Napoli |
| 90' | ⚽ | Diego Farias · Cagliari Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 28 | Shots | 8 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 4 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SSC Napoli | Cagliari Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadio San Paolo |
| coach days | 705.00 | 705.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.92 | 1.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1797.56 | 1482.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.60 | 19.13 |
| eye test v1 | 0.86 | 0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.10 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.76 |
| league points | 74.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.00 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.00 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 2.18 | 1.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.80 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 2.03 | 0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 26.16 | — |
| state index | 1.34 | 0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.96 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |