← Serie A 2016-17 · Sat, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Valeri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 67% | 69% | 1.46 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 18% | 4.71 | fair |
| Torino FC win | 12% | 13% | 8.16 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Emiliano Moretti · Torino FC |
| 38' | 🟨 | Afriyie Acquah · Torino FC |
| 42' | 🟨 | Cristian Molinaro · Torino FC |
| 51' | 🟨 | Kwadwo Asamoah · Juventus FC |
| 52' | ⚽ | Adem Ljajić · Torino FC |
| 53' | 🟨 | Paulo Dybala · Juventus FC |
| 57' | 🟨 | Afriyie Acquah · Torino FC |
| 57' | 🟥 | Afriyie Acquah · Torino FC |
| 76' | 🟨 | Juan Cuadrado · Juventus FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Gonzalo Higuaín · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 12 | Corners | 1 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| coach days | 1040.00 | 309.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.46 | 3.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.69 |
| elo | 1888.04 | 1578.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.69 | 12.09 |
| eye test v1 | 0.58 | 1.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 44.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.51 |
| league points | 84.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.80 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 62.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| season ppg | 2.47 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 12.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 21.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.54 | 1.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| state index | 1.49 | 0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.82 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |