← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Orsato, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 49% | 60% | 2.01 | value: +22% |
| Draw | 27% | 22% | 3.58 | fair |
| SS Lazio win | 24% | 18% | 4.11 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Keita Baldé · SS Lazio |
| 45' | 🟨 | Lucas Biglia · SS Lazio |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Daniele De Rossi · AS Roma |
| 50' | ⚽ | Dušan Basta · SS Lazio |
| 81' | 🟨 | Wesley Hoedt · SS Lazio |
| 85' | ⚽ | Keita Baldé · SS Lazio |
| 87' | 🟨 | Keita Baldé · SS Lazio |
| 90' | 🟥 | Antonio Rüdiger · AS Roma |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marco Parolo · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | SS Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 485.00 | 394.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.06 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1803.18 | 1662.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.66 | -12.47 |
| eye test v1 | 1.08 | 0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.20 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.73 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.67 |
| league points | 75.00 | 64.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.80 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 2.27 | 1.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.40 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.64 | 0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 25.21 | — |
| state index | 1.37 | 0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.29 | -0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |