← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianluca Rocchi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 45% | 46% | 2.17 | fair |
| FC Internazionale Milano win | 30% | 32% | 3.30 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 25% | 22% | 3.91 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | ⚽ | José Callejón · SSC Napoli |
| 52' | 🟨 | Jeison Murillo · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 56' | 🟨 | Marcelo Brozović · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 65' | 🟨 | Kalidou Koulibaly · SSC Napoli |
| 73' | 🟨 | Marko Rog · SSC Napoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Internazionale Milano | SSC Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 180.00 | 699.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.66 | 4.14 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1757.02 | 1914.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -41.67 | 19.43 |
| eye test v1 | 0.35 | 1.00 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.39 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 64.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.76 |
| league points | 56.00 | 71.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 87.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 64.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 2.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.47 | 2.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 28.03 | 28.31 |
| state index | -0.00 | 1.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.07 | 1.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |