← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Luca J. Pairetto, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC win | 61% | 58% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | 4.28 | fair |
| Chievo win | 16% | 18% | 5.99 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | ⚽ | Goran Pandev · Genoa CFC |
| 60' | ⚽ | Samuel Bastien · Chievo |
| 68' | 🟨 | Ivan Radovanović · Chievo |
| 69' | 🟨 | Massimo Gobbi · Chievo |
| 70' | ⚽ | Valter Birsa · Chievo |
| 78' | 🟨 | Fabio Depaoli · Chievo |
| 83' | 🟨 | Diego Laxalt · Genoa CFC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fabio Depaoli · Chievo |
| 90' | 🟥 | Fabio Depaoli · Chievo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 1 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genoa CFC | Chievo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days | 29.00 | 942.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1455.09 | 1473.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.40 | -66.07 |
| eye test v1 | -0.39 | -0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.40 | 51.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.65 |
| league points | 30.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.26 | 0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| state index | -1.29 | -1.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | -0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |