← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Doveri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli win | 47% | 45% | 2.08 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 21% | 3.60 | fair |
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 26% | 33% | 3.84 | value: +29% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Alfred Duncan · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 19' | ⚽ | Federico Peluso · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 24' | ⚽ (pen) | Manuel Pucciarelli · Empoli |
| 34' | ⚽ | Alessandro Matri · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 52' | 🟨 | Timo Letschert · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 57' | ⚽ | Alfred Duncan · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 66' | 🟨 | Assane Dioussé · Empoli |
| 81' | 🟨 | Massimo Maccarone · Empoli |
| 82' | 🟨 | Stefano Sensi · US Sassuolo Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 18 | Shots | 11 |
| 9 | On target | 6 |
| 12 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Empoli | US Sassuolo Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Carlo Castellani |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 303.00 | 1156.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 4.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.31 |
| elo | 1575.18 | 1635.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.04 | 11.16 |
| eye test v1 | 0.18 | -0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.61 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.40 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.69 |
| league points | 29.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 70.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 39.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | -9.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.41 | -1.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.18 | 25.84 |
| state index | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.63 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |