← Serie A 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Davide Massa, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino FC win | 62% | 65% | 1.59 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 20% | 4.66 | fair |
| Sampdoria win | 17% | 16% | 5.64 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Patrik Schick · Sampdoria |
| 36' | 🟨 | Danilo Avelar · Torino FC |
| 77' | 🟨 | Dennis Praet · Sampdoria |
| 78' | ⚽ | Juan Iturbe · Torino FC |
| 80' | 🟨 | Vasco Regini · Sampdoria |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 25 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Torino FC | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino |
| coach days | 302.00 | 302.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -6.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.67 | 2.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1581.52 | 1539.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.49 | -12.29 |
| eye test v1 | 1.11 | -0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 41.20 | 52.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.49 | 0.79 |
| league points | 48.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.60 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.00 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.60 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.52 | 0.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | — | 22.98 |
| state index | 0.53 | -0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.25 | 0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |