← Serie A 2016-17 · Fri, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Guida, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 52% | 42% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 37% | 3.46 | value: +27% |
| Atalanta BC win | 20% | 21% | 4.99 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | ⚽ | Andrea Conti · Atalanta BC |
| 49' | 🟨 | Remo Freuler · Atalanta BC |
| 50' | ⚽ (og) | Leonardo Spinazzola · Juventus FC |
| 75' | 🟨 | Juan Cuadrado · Juventus FC |
| 80' | 🟨 | Andrea Conti · Atalanta BC |
| 83' | 🟨 | Dani Alves · Juventus FC |
| 83' | ⚽ | Dani Alves · Juventus FC |
| 85' | 🟨 | Papu Gómez · Atalanta BC |
| 89' | ⚽ | Remo Freuler · Atalanta BC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 16 |
| 7 | On target | 8 |
| 7 | Corners | 10 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atalanta BC | Juventus FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| venue | Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia |
| coach days |
| 331.00 |
| 1032.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.03 | 3.48 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.01 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1649.68 | 1892.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.15 | 7.58 |
| eye test v1 | 0.80 | 0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.50 | 51.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.92 |
| league points | 63.00 | 83.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 86.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.91 | 2.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.50 | 1.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.60 |
| state index | 0.95 | 1.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.07 | 0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |