← Serie A 2016-17 · Mon, Apr 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Massimiliano Irrati, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 80% | 75% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 13% | 8.20 | value: +3% |
| Pescara win | 8% | 13% | 13.00 | value: +66% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | 🟨 | Cristiano Biraghi · Pescara |
| 40' | 🟨 | Sulley Muntari · Pescara |
| 44' | ⚽ | Kevin Strootman · AS Roma |
| 45' | ⚽ | Radja Nainggolan · AS Roma |
| 48' | ⚽ | Mohamed Salah · AS Roma |
| 60' | ⚽ | Mohamed Salah · AS Roma |
| 83' | ⚽ | Ahmad Benali · Pescara |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 23 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pescara | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia |
| coach days | 82.00 | 479.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 9.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 4.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1308.95 | 1800.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.35 | 13.69 |
| eye test v1 | -0.87 | 1.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 60.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.81 |
| league points | 14.00 | 72.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 60.40 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.41 |
| season ppg | 0.44 | 2.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | 8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 17.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.55 | 1.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.40 |
| squad age | — | 25.31 |
| state index | -1.26 | 1.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |