← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Valerio Marini, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio win | 55% | 48% | 1.79 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.75 | value: +7% |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 19% | 24% | 5.14 | value: +21% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 58' | 🟨 | Felipe · Udinese Calcio |
| 69' | 🟨 | Nicolò Barella · Cagliari Calcio |
| 70' | ⚽ | Stipe Perica · Udinese Calcio |
| 72' | ⚽ | Gabriele Angella · Udinese Calcio |
| 86' | ⚽ | Marco Borriello · Cagliari Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Udinese Calcio | Cagliari Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Dacia Arena |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 204.00 | 692.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 1.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1523.19 | 1485.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.99 | 22.46 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | 0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | 0.76 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 55.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.73 |
| league points | 40.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.60 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.84 | -0.92 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 25.28 | — |
| state index | 0.31 | 0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.76 | -1.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |