← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Nicola Rizzoli, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria win | 52% | 44% | 1.90 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.51 | fair |
| Crotone win | 21% | 29% | 4.76 | value: +40% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Patrik Schick · Sampdoria |
| 61' | 🟨 | Dennis Praet · Sampdoria |
| 62' | 🟨 | Federico Ceccherini · Crotone |
| 67' | ⚽ | Diego Falcinelli · Crotone |
| 80' | 🟨 | Gian Marco Ferrari · Crotone |
| 80' | ⚽ | Simy · Crotone |
| 83' | 🟨 | Lucas Torreira · Sampdoria |
| 83' | 🟨 | Diego Falcinelli · Crotone |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sampdoria | Crotone |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days | 296.00 | 296.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 2.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1554.57 | 1434.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.86 | 27.09 |
| eye test v1 | -0.13 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.56 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.70 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.73 |
| league points | 45.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 61.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 28.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.41 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 0.66 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -9.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.62 | -2.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 22.98 | — |
| state index | 0.14 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.51 | -2.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |