← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Claudio Gavillucci, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 69% | 80% | 1.41 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 19% | 13% | 5.02 | fair |
| Empoli win | 11% | 7% | 8.74 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | José Sosa · AC Milan |
| 40' | ⚽ | Levan Mch'edlidze · Empoli |
| 48' | 🟨 | Mattia De Sciglio · AC Milan |
| 56' | 🟨 | Mame Thiam · Empoli |
| 67' | ⚽ | Mame Thiam · Empoli |
| 72' | ⚽ | Gianluca Lapadula · AC Milan |
| 82' | 🟨 | Suso · AC Milan |
| 82' | 🟨 | Andrés Tello · Empoli |
| 89' | 🟨 | Omar El Kaddouri · Empoli |
| 90' | 🟨 | Giuseppe Bellusci · Empoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 28 | Shots | 11 |
| 12 | On target | 7 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Milan | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza |
| coach days | 326.00 | 296.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.77 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1652.39 | 1432.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.55 | -4.18 |
| eye test v1 | 0.83 | -0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.90 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.85 | 0.68 |
| league points | 58.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.20 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.81 | 0.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.37 | -0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 23.03 | — |
| state index | 0.69 | -0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.53 | -0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |