← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Fabbri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 84% | 83% | 1.17 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 10% | 8.58 | fair |
| Palermo win | 5% | 7% | 20.64 | value: +38% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 9' | ⚽ | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 21' | ⚽ | Keita Baldé · SS Lazio |
| 24' | ⚽ (pen) | Keita Baldé · SS Lazio |
| 26' | ⚽ | Keita Baldé · SS Lazio |
| 46' | ⚽ | Andrea Rispoli · Palermo |
| 52' | ⚽ | Andrea Rispoli · Palermo |
| 58' | 🟨 | Sergej Milinković-Savić · SS Lazio |
| 63' | 🟨 | Alessandro Gazzi · Palermo |
| 90' | ⚽ | Luca Crecco · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 5 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | Palermo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 387.00 | 22.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 3.28 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1657.86 | 1363.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.97 | -30.92 |
| eye test v1 | 0.57 | -0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.73 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.64 |
| league points | 61.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.91 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.60 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.40 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.66 | 0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.60 |
| state index | 0.45 | -1.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.40 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |