← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianpaolo Calvarese, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 82% | 91% | 1.19 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 13% | 6% | 7.80 | fair |
| Genoa CFC win | 5% | 3% | 19.80 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ (og) | Ezequiel Muñoz · Juventus FC |
| 18' | ⚽ | Paulo Dybala · Juventus FC |
| 34' | 🟨 | Nicolás Burdisso · Genoa CFC |
| 41' | ⚽ | Mario Mandžukić · Juventus FC |
| 64' | ⚽ | Leonardo Bonucci · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.20 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| coach days | 1027.00 | 22.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.71 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.38 |
| elo | 2014.95 | 1582.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.07 | -37.71 |
| eye test v1 | 0.91 | -0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.46 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.10 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.90 | 0.66 |
| league points | 80.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 2.50 | 0.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.22 | -0.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 29.10 | 28.33 |
| state index | 1.86 | -0.88 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.56 | -0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |