← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Maurizio Mariani, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino FC win | 45% | 41% | 2.17 | fair |
| Chievo win | 29% | 33% | 3.40 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.79 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 52' | ⚽ | Adem Ljajić · Torino FC |
| 56' | ⚽ | Davide Zappacosta · Torino FC |
| 65' | ⚽ | Sergio Pellissier · Chievo |
| 75' | ⚽ | Iago Falque · Torino FC |
| 76' | 🟨 | Davide Zappacosta · Torino FC |
| 80' | 🟨 | Sofian Kiyine · Chievo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 22 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chievo | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| coach days |
| 935.00 |
| 296.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 3.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1487.13 | 1567.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -40.88 | -6.46 |
| eye test v1 | 0.19 | 0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.70 | 45.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.47 |
| league points | 38.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 56.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.45 | 1.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| state index | -0.75 | -0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.02 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |