← Serie A 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Doveri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino FC win | 64% | 64% | 1.54 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 22% | 4.65 | fair |
| Crotone win | 15% | 15% | 6.46 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | 🟨 | Luca Rossettini · Torino FC |
| 63' | 🟨 | Alex Cordaz · Crotone |
| 65' | 🟨 | Federico Ceccherini · Crotone |
| 66' | ⚽ (pen) | Andrea Belotti · Torino FC |
| 69' | 🟨 | Aleandro Rosi · Crotone |
| 81' | ⚽ | Simy · Crotone |
| 85' | 🟨 | Saša Lukić · Torino FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 24 | Shots | 8 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 11 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Torino FC | Crotone |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino |
| coach days | 288.00 | 288.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.69 | 2.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1572.67 | 1428.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.23 | 23.44 |
| eye test v1 | 0.56 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.75 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 44.10 | 61.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.54 | 0.70 |
| league points | 44.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 61.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 31.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 0.65 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.99 | -2.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| state index | 0.31 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.13 | -2.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |