← Serie A 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Piero Giacomelli, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 68% | 66% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 22% | 4.95 | value: +7% |
| Atalanta BC win | 12% | 12% | 8.13 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Jasmin Kurtić · Atalanta BC |
| 23' | 🟨 | Jasmin Kurtić · Atalanta BC |
| 42' | 🟨 | Hans Hateboer · Atalanta BC |
| 50' | ⚽ | Edin Dzeko · AS Roma |
| 71' | 🟨 | Pierluigi Gollini · Atalanta BC |
| 72' | 🟨 | Mário Rui · AS Roma |
| 87' | 🟨 | Antonio Rüdiger · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 11 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 21 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | Atalanta BC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 470.00 | 318.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.85 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.68 |
| elo | 1918.02 | 1763.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.22 | -5.00 |
| eye test v1 | 1.19 | 1.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | 0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.50 | 64.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.74 |
| league points | 71.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.80 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 2.29 | 1.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 9.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.00 | 16.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.26 | 0.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.80 |
| squad age | 27.76 | 25.61 |
| state index | 1.80 | 0.91 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.10 | -0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |