← Serie A 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Davide Massa, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 81% | 83% | 1.21 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 10% | 7.58 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 6% | 7% | 16.71 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Badu · Udinese Calcio |
| 47' | ⚽ | Dries Mertens · SSC Napoli |
| 63' | ⚽ | Allan · SSC Napoli |
| 72' | ⚽ | José Callejón · SSC Napoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 15 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SSC Napoli | Udinese Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.53 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio San Paolo |
| coach days | 684.00 | 196.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.50 | 2.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1791.11 | 1527.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.50 | 42.28 |
| eye test v1 | 0.77 | 0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.40 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.67 |
| league points | 67.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.80 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.60 | 39.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 2.16 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.88 | -0.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 26.16 | 25.28 |
| state index | 1.34 | 0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.22 | -0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |