← Serie A 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Silvio Mazzoleni, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 70% | 78% | 1.40 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 19% | 12% | 5.20 | fair |
| Empoli win | 11% | 10% | 8.81 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | 🟨 | Daniele Croce · Empoli |
| 37' | ⚽ | Omar El Kaddouri · Empoli |
| 54' | 🟨 | Frédéric Veseli · Empoli |
| 55' | 🟨 | Rade Krunić · Empoli |
| 64' | ⚽ | Cristian Tello · ACF Fiorentina |
| 69' | 🟨 | Nenad Tomović · ACF Fiorentina |
| 73' | 🟨 | Federico Barba · Empoli |
| 82' | 🟨 | Assane Dioussé · Empoli |
| 86' | 🟨 | Josip Iličić · ACF Fiorentina |
| 90' | 🟨 | Borja Valero · ACF Fiorentina |
| 90' | 🟨 | Maximiliano Olivera · ACF Fiorentina |
| 90' | 🟥 | Nikola Kalinić · ACF Fiorentina |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Manuel Pasqual · Empoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 7 |
| 17 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ACF Fiorentina | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
| coach days | 1779.00 | 288.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.29 | 2.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1658.09 | 1415.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.27 | -37.70 |
| eye test v1 | 1.10 | -0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.80 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.63 |
| league points | 52.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.60 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 0.74 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.00 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.80 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.59 | 0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.85 | -1.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |