← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Maurizio Mariani, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio win | 49% | 55% | 2.00 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.38 | fair |
| Genoa CFC win | 22% | 19% | 4.43 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Rodrigo De Paul · Udinese Calcio |
| 31' | ⚽ | Duván Zapata · Udinese Calcio |
| 46' | 🟨 | Nicolás Burdisso · Genoa CFC |
| 49' | ⚽ (og) | Rubinho · Udinese Calcio |
| 60' | 🟨 | Lucas Evangelista · Udinese Calcio |
| 82' | 🟨 | Isaac Cofie · Genoa CFC |
| 87' | 🟨 | Gabriel Silva · Udinese Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Udinese Calcio | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.58 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Dacia Arena |
| coach days |
| 190.00 |
| 8.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 2.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1515.79 | 1465.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.80 | -14.99 |
| eye test v1 | 0.44 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.42 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.10 | 50.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.62 |
| league points | 37.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.00 | 38.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 0.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.85 | -0.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 24.93 | — |
| state index | 0.28 | -0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.90 | -1.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |